King Felix goes for Mariners at Fenway
Baseball Betting Lines
07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners enter the final leg of a challenging road trip with tonight's opener of a three-game series with the American League East-leading Boston Red Sox from Fenway Park.
The surprising Mariners have acquitted themselves well on the nine-game trek, which began with a weekend series with the Los Angeles Dodgers -- owners of baseball's best record -- and continued with three straight meetings with the New York Yankees. Seattle is 3-3 so far on the trip after knocking around Yankees ace CC Sabathia in last night's 8-4 victory.
Seattle battered Sabathia for six runs and 10 hits over the game's first 5 2/3 inning and had five players finish with multiple hits on the night. Franklin Gutierrez went 3-for-5 with a solo home run to lead the way, while Russell Branyan belted a towering two-run shot in the ninth inning to cap the scoring.
Ichiro Suzuki and Chris Woodward also knocked in two runs to help the Mariners avoid a series sweep and win for the eighth time in their last 12 games.
Miguel Batista (5-2) collected the win with two scoreless innings in relief of starter Jason Vargas, who lasted just four frames and allowed all four New York runs. The Seattle bullpen combined to hold the Yankees scoreless over the final five innings.
The Mariners, who enter tonight's play trailing the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim by 3 1/2 games for first place in the AL West, will now take on a Boston club that's a major league-best 25-10 at home this season. Seattle counters by sending out one of the game's most dominant pitchers as of late in ace Felix Hernandez.
Hernandez is 4-0 over his last seven starts and has produced a sensational 0.85 earned run average during that stretch. The 23-year-old phenom has worked at least 6 2/3 innings in each of those games and hasn't suffered a loss since May 29.
The right-hander is coming off a brilliant performance against the Dodgers on Saturday, when Hernandez yielded one unearned run on four hits and fanned nine batters over eight stellar innings.
"He's getting better and better," said Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu after the game. "He was electric [Saturday]. You can't say enough about him."
Hernandez has also held his own against the Red Sox in the past, as he owns a 3-1 record with a 3.05 ERA in six career encounters with Boston. In addition, the native Venezuelan has yet to give up a run in his two previous starts at Fenway Park, having tossed 15 scoreless innings while winning both outings.
The Red Sox hand the ball to 10-game winner Tim Wakefield, with the veteran knuckleballer also carrying a four-decision winning streak into tonight's tilt.
Wakefield put forth one of his best starts of the year Saturday at Atlanta's Turner Field, where he spun six shutout innings in a 1-0 victory over the Braves. He gave up just three hits and walked one over the course of the game.
The 42-year-old has also been quite tough to beat at Fenway, having compiled a 6-0 record with a 3.55 ERA in his seven home starts of 2009. The Red Sox are 12-3 overall in games he's pitched this year.
Wakefield is just 4-9 with a 4.06 ERA in 25 career appearances (15 starts) against Seattle, however, although he defeated the Mariners in Boston with seven innings of two-run ball in June of last season.
The Red Sox had their lead over the second-place Yankees in the AL East extended to three games with Seattle's win last night and enjoyed an off day on Thursday following a wild series in Baltimore. Boston took two of three matchups from the Orioles, but the team's bullpen suffered an epic collapse in a shocking 11-10 defeat on Tuesday. Baltimore scored 10 times over the seventh and eighth innings to rally from a 10-1 deficit.
Boston rebounded with a stirring comeback of its own in Wednesday's finale, putting up four runs in the top of the ninth to force extra innings and earning a 6-5 triumph on Julio Lugo's RBI single in the 11th.
Kevin Youkilis brought the Sox within 5-3 with a two-run homer in the ninth, while Rocco Baldelli delivered a pinch-hit two-RBI single with two outs that tied the contest.
"Obviously we thought we should have won [Tuesday's] game," said Baldelli. "[The Orioles] thought they should have won this game. It was nice to come back and get that win, especially getting on the plane and going home."
The Mariners won two of three games from the Red Sox at Safeco Field from May 15-17 but are just 5-17 over their last 22 visits to Fenway Park. Seattle has not taken a series in Boston since winning two of three tests from August 14-16, 2001.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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