Colts Go West in Must-Win for Chargers
Football Betting Lines
11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts' season was at a crossroads just a few short weeks ago, until a resurgence led by their legendary quarterback put the annual postseason participants back in the playoff mix. The San Diego Chargers are now faced with a similar juncture at this point of their 2008 campaign.
With their backs squarely against the wall, the Chargers return to Qualcomm Stadium this Sunday for a pivotal showdown with a red-hot Colts team that has its sights set on a fourth consecutive win.
Save for a couple of home victories over AFC East contenders New England and the New York Jets, San Diego has hardly resembled the powerhouse which shattered the Colts' Super Bowl dreams with a 28-24 triumph in Indianapolis during last season's conference Divisional Playoffs. The talented Chargers have floundered their way to an inexplicable 4-6 record thus far and come in having lost three of their last four games, with the lone win over that rough patch a one-point verdict at home over doormat Kansas City.
Despite its season-long underachievement, San Diego still stands a reasonable chance of capturing a third straight AFC West title if it can find itself down the stretch. The Chargers currently sit two games off Denver's lead atop the division and have four of their six remaining regular-season tilts at Qualcomm Stadium, including a matchup with the Broncos in the December 28 finale.
San Diego will begin a sequence of three home games in a row on Sunday and is 3-1 as the host this season, with a two-point setback to NFC South leader Carolina in the season opener the club's only blemish.
While the Chargers are reeling entering this critical clash, Indianapolis is flying high with three wins in a row. The surge has placed the 6-4 Colts on solid footing in regards to a Wild Card berth in the AFC, which would extend their string of playoff appearances under head coach Tony Dungy to seven.
Indianapolis' recent run has coincided with a return to form from quarterback Peyton Manning, with the two-time NFL MVP overcoming some early-season struggles to put together three outstanding games. Over the course of the Colts' winning streak, the perennial Pro Bowl participant has thrown for 814 yards and seven touchdowns and has not been intercepted.
Manning was again the x-factor in Indy's latest victory, a hard-fought 33-27 decision over visiting Houston last Sunday in which the star triggerman amassed a season-high 320 passing yards and delivered a pair of second-half scoring strikes.
The Chargers will be attempting to regroup from a painful, narrow loss at AFC North front-runner Pittsburgh this past weekend. Steelers kicker Jeff Reed extended San Diego's woes with a 32-yard field goal with 11 seconds left to play that lifted his team to an 11-10 win.
SERIES HISTORY
The Chargers hold a 14-8 advantage in the all-time regular season series with the Colts, including a 23-21 home win when the teams met in Week 10 of last season. Indianapolis is 0-2 in regular season games against San Diego since defeating them, 34-31 in overtime, in 2004. The Colts last won in San Diego in 1999.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have split a pair of postseason games. The Colts claimed a 35-20 win in a 1995 AFC First-Round Playoff, and the Chargers returned the favor with a 28-24 win in an AFC Divisional Playoff, also the final game in the history of the RCA Dome.
Dungy is 2-2 all-time against San Diego, including a win for his Buccaneers in the 1996 season. The Chargers' Norv Turner is 3-3 all-time against Indianapolis, including 1-2 while head coach in Washington (1994-2000). Turner is 2-2 head-to-head against Dungy, including a loss for his Raiders to Indy in 2004.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
With Manning (2568 passing yards, 17 TD, 9 INT) in an obvious groove right now and the Chargers having been extremely susceptible to strong aerial attacks all year long, expect the Colts to ride the right arm of their decorated signal-caller throughout Sunday's contest. He has averaged 271.3 passing yards per game while not committing a turnover during Indianapolis' current winning streak and has a wealth of outstanding receiving options in the NFL's sixth- ranked passing offense (249.6 ypg), the most dangerous of which is All-Pro wideout Reggie Wayne (56 receptions, 790 yards, 5 TD). Tight end Dallas Clark (39 receptions, 3 TD) and second-year slotman Anthony Gonzalez (40 receptions, 2 TD) are also highly-reliable targets, while future Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison (39 receptions, 4 TD) is coming off one of his best games of what's been a trying year. The 36-year-old wide receiver hauled in a season-best nine Manning passes for 77 yards and a touchdown against Houston last week.
Manning and his accomplished corps of receivers will be airing it out against a San Diego secondary that has been routinely picked apart by enemy quarterbacks in 2008. The Chargers are allowing a league-worst 267 passing yards per game and have had trouble forcing turnovers, one of the defense's strengths a year ago. Quentin Jammer (59 tackles, 1 INT, 16 PD) has been solid at one corner, but athletic counterpart Antonio Cromartie (50 tackles, 2 INT, 7 PD) has been dealing with a nagging hip injury that has reduced the 2007 Pro Bowler's effectiveness, and safeties Eric Weddle (78 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) and Clinton Hart (49 tackles, 6 PD) have often been liabilities in coverage. The pass rush has been spotty as well with havoc-wreaking outside linebacker Shawne Merriman out for the season with torn ligaments in his left knee, as neither Shaun Phillips (49 tackles, 4 sacks) nor Jyles Tucker (21 tackles, 4 sacks) have been able to match the All-Pro's undeniable impact.
The Colts have had their problems running the ball on offense, with injuries to standout running back Joseph Addai (387 rushing yards, 13 receptions, 6 total TD) and across the offensive line contributing greatly to the team's league-low output of 77.7 yards per game on the ground. Addai seems to be recovered from a hamstring strain that rendered him inactive for two games in October, and the third-year pro showed off his good health by rushing for a season-best 105 yards on 22 carries against the Texans last week, and adding 48 yards on four catches. He'll be spelled at times by serviceable vet Dominic Rhodes (338 rushing yards, 25 receptions, 4 total TD), who's a valuable receiver out of the backfield as well.
San Diego ranks a respectable 14th against the run (105.2 ypg) and has improved in that area since inserting Tim Dobbins (38 tackles, 1 INT, 3 forced fumbles) into a starting role at inside linebacker opposite the ultra- productive Stephen Cooper (53 tackles, 1.5 sacks) in Week 6. The defense may be without one of its best stoppers up front on Sunday, as sturdy end Luis Castillo (29 tackles, 1.5 sacks) left last weekend's loss with a groin strain and is highly questionable to face the Colts. Fill-in Jacques Cesaire (12 tackles, 2 sacks) did notch a pair of sacks against the Steelers after replacing Castillo, however.
WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
With game-changing running back LaDainian Tomlinson enduring a down season due to a lingering turf toe problem, the Chargers have relied more on fiery quarterback Philip Rivers (2518 passing yards, 21 TD, 10 INT) to move the offense. The results have been mixed. Rivers leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes and tops the AFC with a 100.9 passer rating, but the former first-round pick has thrown in a few clunkers to go with a number of stellar outings. He's been intercepted four times over the last two weeks and managed just 164 yards on 15-of-26 passing against Pittsburgh's top-notch defense last Sunday. Still, San Diego is seventh in the league in passing offense (243.1 ypg) and has gotten a breakthrough year out of physical wide receiver Vincent Jackson (37 receptions, 646 yards, 4 TD), a 6-foot-5, 240-pound target with speed who presents matchup problems for opposing quarterbacks. His emergence has been essential to the offense, since four-time Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates (40 receptions, 6 TD) and veteran wideout Chris Chambers (19 receptions, 5 TD) have been slowed by injuries at times this year.
Rivers gets another stern challenge again this week, as the Colts' ninth- ranked pass defense (189.4 ypg) has yielded only two touchdowns through the air through the first 10 games. Indy has survived a season-ending knee injury to regular corner Marlin Jackson and knee and hamstring problems to fellow cover man Kelvin Hayden (17 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PD) that have sidelined him for the past six games, as substitutes Tim Jennings (44 tackles, 2 INT) and Keiwan Ratliff (21 tackles, 1 INT) have both held their own. Top pass rusher Dwight Freeney (18 tackles, 7 sacks) has stepped up his play as well lately after a slow start, with the three-time Pro Bowl end having recorded four sacks in the last two weeks. Dungy is hopeful that Hayden can return to action for Sunday's test, but he figures to be a game-time decision.
The Colts' speed-based defense can be quite vulnerable to power running games, and the unit was burned for 156 yards on just 14 carries by Houston rookie Steve Slaton last Sunday, with a good chunk of that total coming on a 71-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Indianapolis is allowing a subpar 138.5 yards per game on the ground (25th overall) and will likely be without dynamic strong safety Bob Sanders (28 tackles, 1 INT) again this week. The reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year has played in just four games this year due to knee surgery and now a high ankle sprain. Second-year pro Melvin Bullitt (50 tackles, 6 PD) has compiled a team-best four interceptions in Sanders' place, but he's not as skilled in defending the run. The team will have leading tackler Gary Brackett (88 tackles), who's garnered at least eight stops in five straight games, in the lineup for Sunday's matchup at the all- important middle linebacker spot.
The Chargers are hoping Indianapolis' shaky run defense will enable Tomlinson (686 rushing yards, 6 total TD) to get untracked. The former league MVP has produced only two 100-yard days this season, and his present 3.8 yards per carry average is the superstar back's lowest since his rookie campaign of 2001. Tomlinson is still a weapon to account for in the passing game, as his 36 receptions and 299 receiving yards are the third-most among San Diego players. The Chargers are a disappointing 27th overall in rushing offense (93.1 ypg) and ran for a paltry 66 yards on the tough Steelers' D last Sunday.
FANTASY FOCUS
Manning owners have been rejoicing over their prized quarterback's recent wave of huge fantasy days, and there's no reason to believe his streak of heavy point totals won't continue against a San Diego defense that has too often not had an answer against the pass. Wayne should be in line for a big afternoon as well come Sunday, and Clark is a must-start at the tight end spot because the Chargers have been particularly powerless in stopping that position. Harrison and Gonzalez are riskier bets for Indianapolis, but the potential is there for both receivers to have productive games. Tomlinson and Addai, two consensus first-round picks in preseason drafts, haven't quite lived up to their lofty status, but both running backs still warrant a place in weekly lineups. Rivers has earned his place as a top-tier fantasy quarterback and usually plays very well at home, so feel free to ride him again this week. Gates and Vincent Jackson also merit starting consideration on the San Diego side.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The importance of this game for San Diego cannot be understated, but will it really matter? The Chargers haven't put together a performance fitting of a playoff participant in over a month, and it's questionable as to whether one will come against an Indianapolis team that's been playing its best ball as of late. This isn't the same San Diego defense that has given Manning fits in the past, and the well-prepared quarterback shouldn't have much of a problem finding open receivers on Sunday. Rivers does have the weapons to keep up in a shootout, but his team is going to need to win the turnover battle like it did in its two meetings with Indianapolis a year ago, and that's been an ongoing problem for San Diego throughout this season. The Chargers used to match up very well with the Colts, but with Merriman sidelined and Tomlinson a shadow of his former self, that's no longer an issue.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Chargers 26
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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
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